Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5WLDDL11th2–4Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5LLWWW8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Cerezo Osaka
Kawasaki Frontale
12
Shots
8
3
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
2
10
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
7
410
Passes
589
41%
Possession %
59%
1.53
xG
1.06
38%
26%
36%
1 · Cerezo OsakaXKawasaki Frontale · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Cerezo Osaka 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.43
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.9%
2.44
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
+3.9
Match result
Cerezo Osaka
37.8%
2.65
2.80 Dafabet
35.7%
+2.0
Match result
Draw
26.0%
3.85
3.75 BetVictor
26.7%
-0.7
Match result
Kawasaki Frontale
36.3%
2.76
2.39 Dafabet
41.8%
-5.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.26
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.0%
4.77
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.3%
1.81
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-8.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.7%
2.24
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+5.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.9%
3.04
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-9.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.1%
1.49
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+5.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.1%
1.69
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-9.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale: too close to call
Our model makes Cerezo Osaka 38% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Kawasaki Frontale at 36%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Cerezo Osaka against 1.43 for Kawasaki Frontale — almost nothing to Cerezo Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%
This season
Season records for Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cerezo Osaka
Metric
Kawasaki Frontale
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.09
Expected goals (xG)
3.41 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.67
Shots on target
9.67 (better)
15.00
Total shots
23.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00
Corners
6.00
58.0 (better)
Possession %
51.0
525 (better)
Passes
481
—
Tackles
—
7.33 (better)
Fouls
15.67
0.67 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67 (better)
Yellow cards
2.33
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Cerezo Osaka v 
Kawasaki Frontale