Cerezo Osaka v 
JEF United Chiba
Match statistics
| Cerezo Osaka | JEF United Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 519 | Passes | 355 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| 1.80 | xG | 1.48 |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Cerezo Osaka 53%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.66 – 0.98
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Cerezo Osaka -0.5
Why this price?
Back Cerezo Osaka -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Bet365 — Cerezo Osaka must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.57. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Cerezo Osaka 1.66, JEF United Chiba 0.98.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.3% | 3.95 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +4.2 |
| Match result | Cerezo Osaka | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.74 Dafabet | 57.5% | -4.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | +0.6 |
| Match result | JEF United Chiba | 21.9% | 4.58 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.4% | 3.66 | 2.75 Betano | 36.4% | -9.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +3.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.70 William Hill | 58.8% | -7.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.7% | 2.05 | 2.10 BetVictor | 47.6% | +1.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cerezo Osaka favoured against JEF United Chiba
Our model makes Cerezo Osaka 53% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and JEF United Chiba at 22%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Cerezo Osaka against 0.98 for JEF United Chiba — a substantial edge to Cerezo Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.64 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Cerezo Osaka | JEF United Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 4-5-5 | W-D-L | 3-4-7 |
| 1.21 | Pts / game | 0.93 |
| 1.14 | Goals for / game | 1.14 |
| 1.79 | Goals against / game | 1.71 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 57% | BTTS | 50% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 0-2-5 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cerezo Osaka · JEF United Chiba
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 3.7 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 48 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.10 | xG | 1.67 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 13.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.83 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 53 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.40 | xG | 0.94 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Cerezo Osaka | Metric | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.50 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 13.33 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 6.67 (better) |
| 46.0 (better) | Possession % | 42.0 |
| 395 (better) | Passes | 356 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.50 (better) | Fouls | 13.67 |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 3.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Cerezo Osaka wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- JEF United Chiba wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba2–22026-10-25
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |