Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5LDLDW16th2–2Cordoba won 3 of the last 5WDWWL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Celta de Vigo II
Cordoba
17
Shots
11
7
Shots on target
5
4
Corners
7
13
Fouls
10
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
2
5
Offsides
0
407
Passes
310
54%
Possession %
46%
1.84
xG
0.85
47%
23%
30%
1 · Celta de Vigo IIXCordoba · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Celta de Vigo II 47%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.52
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.6%
7.33
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-3.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.0%
1.49
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+1.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.0%
3.03
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
-5.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.3%
2.21
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.7%
1.83
1.67 Betano
59.9%
-5.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.3%
1.49
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.7%
3.06
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-4.3
Match result
Celta de Vigo II
47.1%
2.13
3.95 Betano
25.3%
+21.7
Match result
Draw
22.9%
4.36
4.20 Betano
23.8%
-0.9
Match result
Cordoba
30.0%
3.33
2.05 Betano
48.8%
-18.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.4%
1.16
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+0.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Celta de Vigo II favoured against Cordoba
Our model makes Celta de Vigo II 47% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 23% and Cordoba at 30%. The goal projection is 1.93 for Celta de Vigo II against 1.52 for Cordoba — a clear edge to Celta de Vigo II on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Celta de Vigo II
Metric
Cordoba
1.60
Goals scored
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.24
Expected goals (xG)
1.80 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.40
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
11.40
Total shots
17.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80
Corners
7.20 (better)
49.6
Possession %
57.8 (better)
449 (better)
Passes
448
—
Tackles
—
11.80 (better)
Fouls
16.00
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20 (better)
Yellow cards
3.40
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Celta de Vigo II v 
Cordoba