Predicted Edge

Castellonense v Almeria

Castellonense won 0 of the last 10–01–2 aetAlmeria won 3 of the last 51st
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Almeria 52%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.02

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCastellonense25.3%3.967.00 Betfair14.3%+11.0
Match resultDraw22.5%4.454.60 Dafabet21.7%+0.7
Match resultAlmeria52.3%1.911.49 Dafabet67.1%-14.9
Total goalsOver 1.585.5%1.171.25 BetVictor80.0%+5.5
Total goalsUnder 1.514.5%6.914.20 Betfair23.8%-9.3
Total goalsOver 2.565.6%1.521.75 Bet36557.1%+8.5
Total goalsUnder 2.534.4%2.912.10 Betfair47.6%-13.2
Total goalsOver 3.543.7%2.292.88 Betfair34.7%+9.0
Total goalsUnder 3.556.3%1.781.42 BetVictor70.4%-14.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.9%1.541.95 Bet36551.3%+13.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.1%2.851.90 Betfair52.6%-17.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Almeria favoured against Castellonense

Our model makes Castellonense 25% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 22% and Almeria at 52%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Castellonense against 2.02 for Almeria — a substantial edge to Almeria on expected output. A combined 3.38 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 9%
0-2 7%
2-2 6%
0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Castellonense and Almeria
Castellonense Almeria
1Played13
0-1-0W-D-L9-2-2
1.00Pts / game2.23
0.00Goals for / game1.85
0.00Goals against / game0.77
0%Over 2.546%
0%BTTS38%
100%Clean sheets46%
100%Failed to score15%
0-1-0Home record5-1-0
0-0-0Away record4-1-2
D1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Castellonense · Almeria

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots13.8
—Shots on target4.6
—Corners3.9
—Cards2.00
—Fouls13.6
—Possession %52
—xG1.35
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots15.4
—Shots on target4.4
—Corners5.8
—Cards3.75
—Fouls15.5
—Possession %48
—xG1.17
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CastellonenseMetricAlmeria
1.50Goals scored2.40 (better)
1.00Goals conceded0.60 (better)
Expected goals (xG)1.93
Big chances
Shots on target5.80
Total shots15.40
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.40
Possession %55.4
Passes505
Tackles
Fouls14.60
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.60
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Castellonense wins
0
Draws
1
Almeria wins
0
Goals / game
0.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%