Castellón v Sporting Gijon

2nd4–07th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Castellón		Sporting Gijon
14	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	3
11	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	5
495	Passes	551
47%	Possession %	53%
1.88	xG	0.63

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Castellón 51%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 0.99

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Castellón	50.7%	1.97	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-14.6
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.80	4.50 Dafabet	22.2%	+4.1
Match result	Sporting Gijon	22.9%	4.36	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.4%	1.36	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.6%	3.75	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.5%	2.10	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.5%	1.91	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+8.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.8%	3.87	2.82 Betano	35.5%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.2%	1.35	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.5%	1.98	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.5%	2.02	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Castellón favoured against Sporting Gijon

Our model makes Castellón 51% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sporting Gijon at 23%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Castellón against 0.99 for Sporting Gijon — a substantial edge to Castellón on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Castellón and Sporting Gijon
Castellón		Sporting Gijon
12	Played	13
8-3-1	W-D-L	7-1-5
2.25	Pts / game	1.69
1.92	Goals for / game	1.08
0.42	Goals against / game	1.15
42%	Over 2.5	38%
33%	BTTS	31%
58%	Clean sheets	38%
17%	Failed to score	38%
3-2-0	Home record	3-1-3
5-1-1	Away record	4-0-2
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Castellón · Sporting Gijon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	13.7
4.3	Shots on target	4.6
3.8	Corners	4.9
2.00	Cards	3.71
11.3	Fouls	13.0
59	Possession %	51
1.31	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	12.4
3.7	Shots on target	4.9
3.7	Corners	5.4
4.17	Cards	2.86
15.8	Fouls	11.9
41	Possession %	49
0.98	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Castellón	Metric	Sporting Gijon
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.53 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.68
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
13.60 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	4.60 (better)
62.4 (better)	Possession %	46.8
570 (better)	Passes	416
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	12.40
2.60	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.80
0.33	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Castellón wins: 2
Draws: 0
Sporting Gijon wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5