Castellón v AD Ceuta FC
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Castellón 67%
- Likely score
- 2-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.37 – 1.01
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- AD Ceuta FC
- Advised price
- 10.50 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 1.25 units
- Fair price
- 7.12
Model probability 14% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 47.6%. Projection: 2.37–1.01. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- Draw
- Advised price
- 6.40 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 0.98 units
- Fair price
- 5.28
Model probability 19% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 21.2%. Projection: 2.37–1.01. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Castellón | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.26 1xBet | 79.4% | -12.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 18.9% | 5.28 | 6.40 1xBet | 15.6% | +3.3 |
| Match result | AD Ceuta FC | 14.1% | 7.12 | 10.50 1xBet | 9.5% | +4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 14.4% | 6.94 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Castellón favoured against AD Ceuta FC
Our model makes Castellón 67% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 19% and AD Ceuta FC at 14%. The goal projection is 2.37 for Castellón against 1.01 for AD Ceuta FC — a commanding edge to Castellón on expected output. A combined 3.38 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Castellón is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 3-1 8%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Castellón | AD Ceuta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Played | 7 |
| 5-1-0 | W-D-L | 1-1-5 |
| 2.67 | Pts / game | 0.57 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 0.86 |
| 0.33 | Goals against / game | 2.43 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 33% | BTTS | 57% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 43% |
| 2-1-0 | Home record | 1-1-2 |
| 3-0-0 | Away record | 0-0-3 |
| W4 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Castellón · AD Ceuta FC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Castellón | Metric | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 2.55 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.59 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 14.80 (better) | Total shots | 14.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 | Corners | 6.00 (better) |
| 63.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.2 |
| 597 (better) | Passes | 413 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 (better) | Fouls | 14.60 |
| 0.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.67 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Castellón wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- AD Ceuta FC wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 100%
- AD Ceuta FC v Castellón1–12026-05-09
- Castellón v AD Ceuta FC3–32025-09-14
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 18 | Eibar won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | Castellón won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 15 | Almeria won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 | Girona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 | Mallorca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 12 | Sabadell won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 11 | Leganes won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 | Tenerife won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Las Palmas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Sporting Gijon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Granada CF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Valladolid won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 | Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 | Eldense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 4 | Cadiz won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 | AD Ceuta FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 | Albacete won 0 of the last 5 |