Cambridge City v Alvechurch

1–2

14:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 73%
Over 3.5: 52%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Cambridge City 45%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.04 – 1.73

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cambridge City	45.1%	2.21	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+18.5
Match result	Draw	22.1%	4.52	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.5
Match result	Alvechurch	32.7%	3.06	2.00 BetVictor	50.0%	-17.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.5%	1.12	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.5%	9.49	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.6%	1.38	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+7.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.4%	3.65	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-11.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	52.0%	1.92	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.0%	2.08	1.60 BetVictor	62.5%	-14.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.0%	1.39	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.0%	3.57	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-10.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cambridge City favoured against Alvechurch

Our model makes Cambridge City 45% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Alvechurch at 33%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Cambridge City against 1.73 for Alvechurch — a clear edge to Cambridge City on expected output. A combined 3.77 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Cambridge City and Alvechurch
Cambridge City		Alvechurch
3	Played	6
2-0-1	W-D-L	4-1-1
2.00	Pts / game	2.17
3.33	Goals for / game	2.17
1.33	Goals against / game	1.33
100%	Over 2.5	83%
100%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	17%
2-0-1	Home record	3-0-0
0-0-0	Away record	1-1-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cambridge City · Alvechurch

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	0.0
—	Shots on target	0.0
—	Corners	4.0
—	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	13.0
—	Possession %	27
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	23.0
—	Shots on target	8.0
—	Corners	6.0
—	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	14.0
—	Possession %	73
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cambridge City	Metric	Alvechurch
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.40
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cambridge City wins: 0
Draws: 0
Alvechurch wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Cambridge City v Alvechurch1–22026-10-03