Cagliari v Juventus

9th1–17th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cagliari		Juventus
4	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	10
1	Corners	9
8	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
340	Passes	843
28%	Possession %	72%
0.56	xG	1.97

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Juventus 55%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.83 – 1.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cagliari	19.0%	5.26	7.10 Betano	14.1%	+4.9
Match result	Draw	26.4%	3.78	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	+2.6
Match result	Juventus	54.5%	1.83	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.8%	1.43	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.2%	3.31	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.1%	2.32	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.9%	1.76	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.2%	4.51	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.8%	1.28	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.2%	2.21	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.8%	1.82	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Juventus favoured against Cagliari

Our model makes Cagliari 19% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Juventus at 55%. The goal projection is 0.83 for Cagliari against 1.58 for Juventus — a substantial edge to Juventus on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 1-1 12%; 0-2 11%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Cagliari and Juventus
Cagliari		Juventus
11	Played	11
5-1-5	W-D-L	5-3-3
1.45	Pts / game	1.64
0.91	Goals for / game	1.36
1.36	Goals against / game	1.09
36%	Over 2.5	27%
36%	BTTS	36%
36%	Clean sheets	45%
27%	Failed to score	18%
2-1-2	Home record	3-1-1
3-0-3	Away record	2-2-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cagliari · Juventus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.1	Shots	15.6
3.6	Shots on target	5.1
3.3	Corners	8.1
2.02	Cards	1.38
13.6	Fouls	10.6
39	Possession %	59
1.28	xG	1.36
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.9	Shots	11.8
6.7	Shots on target	3.3
7.9	Corners	4.5
1.29	Cards	1.71
9.7	Fouls	9.5
61	Possession %	41
2.02	xG	0.93
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cagliari	Metric	Juventus
1.00	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.13	Expected goals (xG)	1.33 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
10.80	Total shots	14.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	5.25 (better)
42.4	Possession %	51.8 (better)
431	Passes	515 (better)
	Tackles
7.80 (better)	Fouls	10.50
3.40	Offsides	3.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cagliari wins: 1
Draws: 1
Juventus wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Cagliari v Juventus1–12026-10-11
Cagliari v Juventus1–02026-01-17
Juventus v Cagliari2–12025-11-29

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5