Predicted Edge

Buxton v South Shields

Buxton won 1 of the last 20–2South Shields won 2 of the last 3

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Buxton South Shields
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
53%
Both score
71%
Model pick
South Shields 55%
Likely score
1-2 9%
Expected goals
1.51 – 2.32

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBuxton24.2%4.133.10 BetVictor32.3%-8.1
Match resultDraw20.6%4.854.20 William Hill23.8%-3.2
Match resultSouth Shields55.2%1.812.12 Betano47.2%+8.0
Total goalsOver 1.590.0%1.111.13 BetVictor88.5%+1.5
Total goalsUnder 1.510.0%9.978.00 BetVictor12.5%-2.5
Total goalsOver 2.573.6%1.361.44 Bet36569.4%+4.1
Total goalsUnder 2.526.4%3.793.50 BetVictor28.6%-2.2
Total goalsOver 3.553.3%1.881.80 Betano55.6%-2.3
Total goalsUnder 3.546.8%2.142.00 BetVictor50.0%-3.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes70.7%1.411.37 Betano73.0%-2.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No29.3%3.423.50 BetVictor28.6%+0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

South Shields favoured against Buxton

Our model makes Buxton 24% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and South Shields at 55%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Buxton against 2.32 for South Shields — a substantial edge to South Shields on expected output. A combined 3.83 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-2 9%
1-1 8%
1-3 7%
2-2 7%
0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Buxton and South Shields
Buxton South Shields
2Played3
1-0-1W-D-L2-0-1
1.50Pts / game2.00
0.50Goals for / game3.67
1.00Goals against / game1.00
0%Over 2.567%
0%BTTS33%
50%Clean sheets67%
50%Failed to score0%
1-0-1Home record1-0-0
0-0-0Away record1-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Buxton · South Shields

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots9.0
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners4.0
—Cards2.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %42
—xG—
1 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots20.0
—Shots on target7.0
—Corners7.0
—Cards1.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %58
—xG—
1 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BuxtonMetricSouth Shields
1.80Goals scored2.80 (better)
1.80Goals conceded1.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Buxton wins
0
Draws
0
South Shields wins
1
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%