Predicted Edge

Bury Town v Spalding United

Bury Town won 2 of the last 41–1Spalding United won 2 of the last 5
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
53%
Both score
73%
Model pick
Bury Town 44%
Likely score
1-1 8%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.80

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBury Town43.9%2.283.25 Betfair30.8%+13.1
Match resultDraw22.0%4.553.60 BetVictor27.8%-5.8
Match resultSpalding United34.2%2.932.15 Betfair46.5%-12.3
Total goalsOver 1.590.0%1.111.21 Betano82.6%+7.4
Total goalsUnder 1.510.0%10.044.20 BetVictor23.8%-13.9
Total goalsOver 2.573.7%1.361.70 Bet36558.8%+14.9
Total goalsUnder 2.526.3%3.802.15 BetVictor46.5%-20.2
Total goalsOver 3.553.4%1.872.75 BetVictor36.4%+17.0
Total goalsUnder 3.546.6%2.151.45 Betano69.0%-22.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes73.0%1.37———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No27.0%3.712.30 BetVictor43.5%-16.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bury Town favoured against Spalding United

Our model makes Bury Town 44% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Spalding United at 34%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Bury Town against 1.80 for Spalding United — a slight edge to Bury Town on expected output. A combined 3.84 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Bury Town and Spalding United
Bury Town Spalding United
4Played5
2-1-1W-D-L2-2-1
1.75Pts / game1.60
2.25Goals for / game1.80
2.50Goals against / game1.40
75%Over 2.560%
75%BTTS40%
0%Clean sheets40%
25%Failed to score20%
0-1-0Home record2-1-0
2-0-1Away record0-1-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bury Town · Spalding United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0Shots14.0
5.0Shots on target7.0
4.0Corners4.0
0.00Cards1.00
—Fouls—
54Possession %46
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0Shots13.0
7.0Shots on target5.0
4.0Corners4.0
1.00Cards0.00
—Fouls—
46Possession %54
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bury TownMetricSpalding United
2.00Goals scored2.00
2.00Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Bury Town wins
0
Draws
1
Spalding United wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
50%