Burgos v Sabadell

3rd1–013th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Burgos		Sabadell
13	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
10	Corners	3
10	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
377	Passes	305
63%	Possession %	37%
2.22	xG	0.51

Over 1.5: 56%
Over 2.5: 28%
Over 3.5: 12%
Both score: 37%

Model pick: Burgos 38%
Likely score: 0-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.01 – 0.84

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	33.7%	2.97	3.05 Betano	32.8%	+0.9
Match result	Burgos	37.8%	2.65	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	+2.1
Match result	Sabadell	28.5%	3.51	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-6.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	56.2%	1.78	1.53 BetVictor	65.4%	-9.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	43.8%	2.28	2.67 Betano	37.5%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	28.5%	3.51	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	71.5%	1.40	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	11.8%	8.47	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	88.2%	1.13	1.20 Betano	83.3%	+4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	37.1%	2.70	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	62.9%	1.59	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Burgos favoured against Sabadell

Our model makes Burgos 38% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 34% and Sabadell at 28%. The goal projection is 1.01 for Burgos against 0.84 for Sabadell — a slight edge to Burgos on expected output. A combined 1.86 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 28% and both teams to score at 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 16%; 1-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Burgos and Sabadell
Burgos		Sabadell
13	Played	13
7-3-3	W-D-L	4-6-3
1.85	Pts / game	1.38
1.46	Goals for / game	0.92
1.08	Goals against / game	0.85
54%	Over 2.5	31%
62%	BTTS	46%
23%	Clean sheets	38%
23%	Failed to score	46%
5-2-1	Home record	3-3-0
2-1-2	Away record	1-3-3
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burgos · Sabadell

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	15.1
4.9	Shots on target	3.6
4.6	Corners	5.4
2.50	Cards	2.77
13.4	Fouls	17.3
46	Possession %	49
1.53	xG	1.11
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	9.1
4.1	Shots on target	2.5
4.3	Corners	3.9
2.39	Cards	2.52
13.9	Fouls	11.3
54	Possession %	51
0.99	xG	1.10
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burgos	Metric	Sabadell
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.05
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	3.80 (better)
9.40	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	6.40 (better)
45.0	Possession %	46.8 (better)
382 (better)	Passes	341
	Tackles
19.20	Fouls	16.80 (better)
2.50	Offsides	2.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Burgos wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sabadell wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Burgos v Sabadell1–02026-10-18

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5