Burgos won 3 of the last 5WDWWL3rd2–1Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5LDLDW16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
19
Shots
7
6
Shots on target
1
10
Corners
1
13
Fouls
9
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
533
Passes
366
59%
Possession %
41%
2.84
xG
0.49
56%
24%
20%
1 · BurgosXCelta de Vigo II · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Burgos 56%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.03
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Draw
23.6%
4.24
3.90 Dafabet
25.6%
-2.0
Match result
Celta de Vigo II
20.2%
4.94
5.00 Betano
20.0%
+0.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.27
1.31 Betano
76.3%
+2.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.0%
4.76
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-4.6
Match result
Burgos
56.2%
1.78
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-0.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.3%
1.81
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+4.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.7%
2.23
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-6.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.9%
3.04
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.1%
1.49
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-6.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.9%
1.82
1.83 Bet365
54.6%
+0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.1%
2.22
1.95 Betfair
51.3%
-6.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Burgos favoured against Celta de Vigo II
Our model makes Burgos 56% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 24% and Celta de Vigo II at 20%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Burgos against 1.03 for Celta de Vigo II — a substantial edge to Burgos on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burgos
Metric
Celta de Vigo II
1.80
Goals scored
1.80
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.39 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.21
—
Big chances *
—
5.75 (better)
Shots on target
4.80
14.75 (better)
Total shots
9.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
3.20
44.8
Possession %
46.6 (better)
360
Passes
416 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.00 (better)
Fouls
12.60
2.33
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.60
Yellow cards
2.60
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Burgos v 
Celta de Vigo II