Burgos v Castellón

3rd1–12nd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Burgos		Castellón
9	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
1	Corners	1
14	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	1
8	Offsides	1
357	Passes	560
40%	Possession %	60%
0.34	xG	0.30

Over 1.5: 63%
Over 2.5: 36%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Castellón 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Burgos	32.5%	3.07	3.60 Betano	27.8%	+4.7
Match result	Draw	31.1%	3.22	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	+2.9
Match result	Castellón	36.4%	2.75	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-8.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	35.7%	2.80	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-13.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	64.3%	1.55	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+14.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	16.6%	6.02	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-14.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	63.3%	1.58	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-13.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	36.7%	2.73	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+10.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	83.4%	1.20	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+9.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.4%	2.30	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-13.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.6%	1.77	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+10.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Burgos v Castellón: too close to call

Our model makes Burgos 33% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 31% and Castellón at 36%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Burgos against 1.10 for Castellón — almost nothing to Castellón on expected output. A combined 2.12 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 0-1 12%; 1-0 12%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Burgos and Castellón
Burgos		Castellón
13	Played	12
7-3-3	W-D-L	8-3-1
1.85	Pts / game	2.25
1.46	Goals for / game	1.92
1.08	Goals against / game	0.42
54%	Over 2.5	42%
62%	BTTS	33%
23%	Clean sheets	58%
23%	Failed to score	17%
5-2-1	Home record	3-2-0
2-1-2	Away record	5-1-1
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burgos · Castellón

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	13.0
4.9	Shots on target	4.3
4.6	Corners	3.8
2.50	Cards	2.00
13.4	Fouls	11.3
46	Possession %	59
1.53	xG	1.31
8 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	11.0
4.1	Shots on target	3.7
4.3	Corners	3.7
2.39	Cards	4.17
13.9	Fouls	15.8
54	Possession %	41
0.99	xG	0.98
8 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burgos	Metric	Castellón
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	1.71 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
12.00	Total shots	13.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	4.00
48.6	Possession %	62.2 (better)
389	Passes	571 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	11.40 (better)
3.50	Offsides	2.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Burgos wins: 0
Draws: 2
Castellón wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Burgos v Castellón1–12026-11-01
Castellón v Burgos3–12026-04-18
Burgos v Castellón0–02025-11-10

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5