Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5DWLWD8th1–0Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5LLDDD11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
12
Shots
9
4
Shots on target
2
3
Corners
2
14
Fouls
17
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
3
334
Passes
400
54%
Possession %
46%
0.76
xG
0.69
42%
27%
30%
1 · Budapest HonvedXKisvarda FC · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Budapest Honved 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.0%
1.92
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
+3.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.2%
3.81
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.36
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
+2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.9%
1.89
1.73 William Hill
57.8%
-4.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.1%
2.13
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
+1.6
Match result
Budapest Honved
42.3%
2.37
2.15 Betano
46.5%
-4.3
Match result
Draw
27.4%
3.65
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
-0.4
Match result
Kisvarda FC
30.3%
3.30
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+0.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.7%
1.36
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.3%
3.81
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
48.0%
2.08
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-3.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Budapest Honved favoured against Kisvarda FC
Our model makes Budapest Honved 42% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 27% and Kisvarda FC at 30%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Budapest Honved against 1.17 for Kisvarda FC — a clear edge to Budapest Honved on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Budapest Honved and Kisvarda FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Budapest Honved
Metric
Kisvarda FC
2.40
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.12 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.70
—
Big chances *
—
4.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.50
12.25 (better)
Total shots
9.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25
Corners
3.50 (better)
47.3 (better)
Possession %
41.8
354 (better)
Passes
322
—
Tackles
—
18.50
Fouls
14.50 (better)
0.67
Offsides
0.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.75
Yellow cards
0.75 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Budapest Honved v 
Kisvarda FC