Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5DWLWD8th0–2Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5WWWWD4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Budapest Honved
Debreceni VSC
9
Shots
19
2
Shots on target
8
3
Corners
4
11
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
8
Offsides
6
277
Passes
353
40%
Possession %
60%
0.66
xG
1.55
39%
24%
37%
1 · Budapest HonvedXDebreceni VSC · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Budapest Honved 39%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.59
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Budapest Honved
38.9%
2.57
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+1.9
Match result
Draw
24.3%
4.11
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-3.5
Match result
Debreceni VSC
36.8%
2.72
2.62 Betano
38.2%
-1.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.8%
1.19
1.21 Betano
82.6%
+1.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.2%
6.18
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-6.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.7%
1.60
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.3%
2.68
2.30 Betano
43.5%
-6.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.5%
2.47
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+2.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.5%
1.68
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-5.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.7%
1.54
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.3%
2.83
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-4.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Budapest Honved v Debreceni VSC: too close to call
Our model makes Budapest Honved 39% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 24% and Debreceni VSC at 37%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Budapest Honved against 1.59 for Debreceni VSC — almost nothing to Budapest Honved on expected output. A combined 3.23 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for Budapest Honved and Debreceni VSC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Budapest Honved
Metric
Debreceni VSC
2.40
Goals scored
2.50 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.25
1.34
Expected goals (xG)
1.58 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.25 (better)
Shots on target
5.00
14.50 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
6.00 (better)
50.5 (better)
Possession %
50.3
384 (better)
Passes
364
—
Tackles
—
14.50
Fouls
12.33 (better)
0.75 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
2.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Budapest Honved v 
Debreceni VSC