Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5DLLLL11th0–3Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5DDWLW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Bucheon FC 1995
Gwangju FC
11
Shots
13
4
Shots on target
7
6
Corners
0
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
56%
Possession %
44%
—
xG
—
48%
25%
27%
1 · Bucheon FC 1995XGwangju FC · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Bucheon FC 1995 48%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Bucheon FC 1995
47.7%
2.10
2.29 Dafabet
43.7%
+4.1
Match result
Draw
25.4%
3.93
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
-3.1
Match result
Gwangju FC
26.8%
3.73
3.30 Bet365
30.3%
-3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.2%
1.28
1.28 Betano
78.1%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.8%
4.59
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-4.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.1%
1.85
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+0.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.9%
2.18
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-5.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
31.8%
3.15
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+1.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
68.2%
1.47
1.37 Betano
73.0%
-4.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.8%
1.76
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-1.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.2%
2.31
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-3.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bucheon FC 1995 favoured against Gwangju FC
Our model makes Bucheon FC 1995 48% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Gwangju FC at 27%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.19 for Gwangju FC — a clear edge to Bucheon FC 1995 on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bucheon FC 1995
Metric
Gwangju FC
0.60
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
2.60
Goals conceded
1.80 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
3.80
Shots on target
4.40 (better)
10.60
Total shots
12.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80 (better)
Corners
2.00
40.2
Possession %
42.4 (better)
334
Passes
434 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.40
Fouls
9.40 (better)
0.80 (better)
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.40 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Bucheon FC 1995 v 
Gwangju FC