Brondby v Aarhus

5th2–08th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Brondby		Aarhus
14	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	1
9	Corners	6
21	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
421	Passes	467
47%	Possession %	53%
2.66	xG	1.34

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Brondby 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.1%	1.78	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-8.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.9%	2.28	2.55 Betano	39.2%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.97	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-8.3
Match result	Brondby	38.0%	2.63	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-10.3
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.88	3.90 Betano	25.6%	+0.1
Match result	Aarhus	36.2%	2.76	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+6.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.6%	1.26	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.4%	4.90	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+5.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.7%	1.68	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.3%	2.48	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brondby v Aarhus: too close to call

Our model makes Brondby 38% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Aarhus at 36%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Brondby against 1.45 for Aarhus — almost nothing to Brondby on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Brondby and Aarhus
Brondby		Aarhus
14	Played	14
7-1-6	W-D-L	3-6-5
1.57	Pts / game	1.07
1.64	Goals for / game	1.36
1.50	Goals against / game	1.50
57%	Over 2.5	57%
57%	BTTS	64%
21%	Clean sheets	14%
21%	Failed to score	21%
5-0-2	Home record	3-3-1
2-1-4	Away record	0-3-4
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brondby · Aarhus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	13.7
4.2	Shots on target	3.5
5.8	Corners	4.5
1.67	Cards	1.33
13.8	Fouls	9.7
49	Possession %	52
1.99	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	16.0
3.8	Shots on target	4.8
4.7	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	2.17
11.3	Fouls	16.8
51	Possession %	48
1.34	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brondby	Metric	Aarhus
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
2.31 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.92
	Big chances
5.25 (better)	Shots on target	2.50
13.00 (better)	Total shots	7.25
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	2.75
49.0 (better)	Possession %	45.8
462 (better)	Passes	429
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	10.50 (better)
2.75	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brondby wins: 1
Draws: 3
Aarhus wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.17
Over 2.5: 17%
Both score: 33%

Brondby v Aarhus2–02026-11-01
Aarhus v Brondby1–12026-07-25
Brondby v Aarhus0–22026-05-10
Aarhus v Brondby0–02026-03-22
Brondby v Aarhus3–32025-10-19
Aarhus v Brondby1–02025-09-21

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5