Bristol Rovers v Salford City

17th1–21st

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bristol Rovers		Salford City
14	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	3
15	Fouls	14
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
343	Passes	384
49%	Possession %	51%
1.69	xG	0.70

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Salford City 37%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.33

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Bristol Rovers -0.5

2.45BetVictor · fair 2.27 · qualifies at 2.34+ · 1.37u

Why this price?

Back Bristol Rovers -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.45 with BetVictor — Bristol Rovers must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.27. The offered 2.45 implies only 41%, so the price is 8.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.37 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.29, Salford City 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bristol Rovers	35.4%	2.83	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	-2.4
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.63	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-0.2
Match result	Salford City	37.1%	2.70	2.80 Dafabet	35.7%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.2%	1.35	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.8%	3.88	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.6%	2.06	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.4%	1.95	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.8%	3.74	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.2%	1.36	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.86	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bristol Rovers v Salford City: too close to call

Our model makes Bristol Rovers 35% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 28% and Salford City at 37%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Bristol Rovers against 1.33 for Salford City — almost nothing to Salford City on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Bristol Rovers and Salford City
Bristol Rovers		Salford City
14	Played	14
5-1-8	W-D-L	10-1-3
1.14	Pts / game	2.21
1.21	Goals for / game	1.79
1.64	Goals against / game	1.07
50%	Over 2.5	57%
43%	BTTS	57%
36%	Clean sheets	29%
29%	Failed to score	14%
4-1-2	Home record	6-0-1
1-0-6	Away record	4-1-2
L1	Streak	W8

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bristol Rovers · Salford City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	14.1
4.3	Shots on target	4.9
4.7	Corners	5.4
2.29	Cards	1.86
15.6	Fouls	10.0
50	Possession %	52
1.34	xG	1.35
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	11.6
4.3	Shots on target	3.0
3.7	Corners	5.9
2.57	Cards	1.86
12.0	Fouls	13.3
50	Possession %	48
1.68	xG	1.05
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bristol Rovers	Metric	Salford City
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.73 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.54
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
14.40	Total shots	15.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	5.60 (better)
43.8	Possession %	53.8 (better)
302	Passes	426 (better)
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bristol Rovers wins: 1
Draws: 0
Salford City wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Bristol Rovers v Salford City1–22026-10-20
Salford City v Bristol Rovers1–02026-01-24
Bristol Rovers v Salford City2–12025-09-27

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5