Brentwood Town v Dagenham & Redbridge

3–1

11:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.61

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Brentwood Town	35.0%	2.86	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+15.0
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.99	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+4.0
Match result	Dagenham & Redbridge	40.0%	2.50	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	-20.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.15 BetVictor	87.0%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.65	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.1%	1.66	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.9%	2.51	2.50 BetVictor	40.0%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.7%	2.65	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.3%	1.61	1.57 BetVictor	63.7%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.8%	1.59	1.57 BetVictor	63.7%	-0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.2%	2.69	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	-4.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brentwood Town v Dagenham & Redbridge: too close to call

Our model makes Brentwood Town 35% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Dagenham & Redbridge at 40%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Brentwood Town against 1.61 for Dagenham & Redbridge — a slight edge to Dagenham & Redbridge on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Brentwood Town and Dagenham & Redbridge
Brentwood Town		Dagenham & Redbridge
5	Played	3
3-1-1	W-D-L	1-1-1
2.00	Pts / game	1.33
2.40	Goals for / game	1.67
1.60	Goals against / game	1.33
80%	Over 2.5	67%
80%	BTTS	67%
20%	Clean sheets	33%
20%	Failed to score	0%
2-0-0	Home record	1-0-0
1-1-1	Away record	0-1-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brentwood Town · Dagenham & Redbridge

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brentwood Town	Metric	Dagenham & Redbridge
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.40	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brentwood Town wins: 1
Draws: 0
Dagenham & Redbridge wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Brentwood Town v Dagenham & Redbridge3–12026-10-03