Brann v Molde

7th3–25th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Brann		Molde
13	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	7
15	Fouls	13
5	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
293	Passes	613
33%	Possession %	67%
1.63	xG	3.39

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 73%
Over 3.5: 53%
Both score: 73%

Model pick: Brann 42%
Likely score: 1-1 8%
Expected goals: 1.98 – 1.82

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Brann	42.1%	2.37	2.82 Betano	35.5%	+6.7
Match result	Draw	22.0%	4.54	4.30 Dafabet	23.3%	-1.2
Match result	Molde	35.8%	2.79	2.19 Dafabet	45.7%	-9.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.6%	1.12	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.4%	9.65	10.00 Bet365	10.0%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.1%	1.37	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.9%	3.71	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	52.6%	1.90	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	47.4%	2.11	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.6%	1.38	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.4%	3.65	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brann favoured against Molde

Our model makes Brann 42% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 22% and Molde at 36%. The goal projection is 1.98 for Brann against 1.82 for Molde — a slight edge to Brann on expected output. A combined 3.80 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Brann and Molde
Brann		Molde
26	Played	26
10-3-13	W-D-L	13-5-8
1.27	Pts / game	1.69
1.81	Goals for / game	2.46
1.69	Goals against / game	1.69
81%	Over 2.5	73%
77%	BTTS	77%
12%	Clean sheets	15%
15%	Failed to score	8%
7-0-6	Home record	9-1-3
3-3-7	Away record	4-4-5
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brann · Molde

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	22.0
5.2	Shots on target	9.4
7.5	Corners	7.4
2.53	Cards	2.40
11.0	Fouls	10.6
57	Possession %	65
1.91	xG	3.25
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.8	Shots	14.4
6.5	Shots on target	5.4
4.5	Corners	5.8
1.70	Cards	1.80
12.0	Fouls	11.2
43	Possession %	35
2.45	xG	1.86
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brann	Metric	Molde
1.60	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.79 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.75
	Big chances
7.50	Shots on target	10.67 (better)
23.00 (better)	Total shots	21.33
	Touches in opp. box
10.50 (better)	Corners	7.00
71.8 (better)	Possession %	64.7
687 (better)	Passes	634
	Tackles
11.50 (better)	Fouls	11.67
2.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brann wins: 2
Draws: 0
Molde wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Brann v Molde3–22026-11-01
Molde v Brann1–22026-07-18
Molde v Brann4–02025-11-22

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5