Bradford v 
Peterborough
Match statistics
| Bradford | Peterborough | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 356 | Passes | 350 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 2.93 | xG | 1.26 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Over 3.5
- 23%
- Both score
- 50%
- Model pick
- Bradford 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.39 – 1.06
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Bradford -0.5
Why this price?
Back Bradford -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Bet365 — Bradford must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.72. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 7.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bradford 1.39, Peterborough 1.06.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bradford | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.83 Bet365 | 54.6% | -10.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.1% | 3.55 | 4.30 Dafabet | 23.3% | +4.9 |
| Match result | Peterborough | 28.0% | 3.57 | 5.25 BetVictor | 19.0% | +9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | -7.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 4.75 BetVictor | 21.1% | +8.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | -11.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 4.32 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -10.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +10.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | -7.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +5.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bradford favoured against Peterborough
Our model makes Bradford 44% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 28% and Peterborough at 28%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Bradford against 1.06 for Peterborough — a clear edge to Bradford on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 9%
This season
| Bradford | Peterborough | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 6-4-3 | W-D-L | 2-4-7 |
| 1.69 | Pts / game | 0.77 |
| 0.77 | Goals for / game | 0.85 |
| 0.62 | Goals against / game | 1.77 |
| 15% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 15% | BTTS | 54% |
| 69% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 3-1-2 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 3-3-1 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bradford · Peterborough
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.7 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 8.7 | Corners | 6.6 |
| 2.43 | Cards | 1.57 |
| 16.0 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.64 | xG | 1.47 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.6 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 44 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.24 | xG | 1.85 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Bradford | Metric | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.25 (better) |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.25 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 12.80 | Total shots | 17.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 | Corners | 7.75 (better) |
| 54.6 (better) | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 408 | Passes | 441 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 4.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bradford wins
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Peterborough wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 25%
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