Bournemouth v Aston Villa

7th3–010th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bournemouth		Aston Villa
19	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	2
13	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
456	Passes	486
49%	Possession %	51%
2.75	xG	1.67

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Aston Villa 45%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.84

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Aston Villa

2.88Bet365 · fair 2.60 · qualifies at 2.68+ · 1.42u

Why this price?

Back Aston Villa to win at 2.88 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.60. The offered 2.88 implies only 35%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.42 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bournemouth 1.50, Aston Villa 1.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.76 · qualifies at 2.87+ · 1.07u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.00 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.76. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 8.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bournemouth 1.50, Aston Villa 1.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bournemouth	31.1%	3.22	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-12.0
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.25	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-3.9
Match result	Aston Villa	45.4%	2.20	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+13.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.1%	1.18	1.25 Betano	80.0%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.9%	6.72	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.9%	1.54	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+9.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.1%	2.85	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.9%	2.33	2.82 Betano	35.5%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.1%	1.75	1.54 BetVictor	64.9%	-7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.8%	1.52	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.2%	2.93	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-5.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aston Villa favoured against Bournemouth

Our model makes Bournemouth 31% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Aston Villa at 45%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Bournemouth against 1.84 for Aston Villa — a clear edge to Aston Villa on expected output. A combined 3.34 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Bournemouth and Aston Villa
Bournemouth		Aston Villa
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	3-4-3
1.50	Pts / game	1.30
1.60	Goals for / game	1.40
1.40	Goals against / game	1.70
60%	Over 2.5	60%
60%	BTTS	60%
30%	Clean sheets	20%
10%	Failed to score	30%
2-2-1	Home record	1-2-2
2-1-2	Away record	2-2-1
W4	Streak	D2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bournemouth · Aston Villa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	14.7
4.6	Shots on target	4.6
5.1	Corners	3.1
2.43	Cards	2.14
14.9	Fouls	11.9
49	Possession %	45
2.16	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3	Shots	17.7
3.1	Shots on target	5.7
2.9	Corners	6.4
2.31	Cards	3.29
10.9	Fouls	15.3
51	Possession %	55
1.11	xG	2.06
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bournemouth	Metric	Aston Villa
1.60	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.36 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.05
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
16.20	Total shots	17.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.25
53.8 (better)	Possession %	46.0
452 (better)	Passes	390
	Tackles
13.20	Fouls	10.75 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bournemouth wins: 1
Draws: 1
Aston Villa wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%