Bosnia & Herzegovina v 
Sweden
Match statistics
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 468 | Passes | 464 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Over 3.5
- 18%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Sweden 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 0.91 – 1.28
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 3.5
Why this price?
Back under 3.5 goals at 1.44 with Betano — 3 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 82%, which is a fair price of 1.22. The offered 1.44 implies only 69%, so the price is 18.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.91, Sweden 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Draw
Why this price?
Back the draw at 3.70 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 30%, which is a fair price of 3.32. The offered 3.70 implies only 27%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.91, Sweden 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 25.8% | 3.88 | 3.35 Betano | 29.9% | -4.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.2% | 3.32 | 3.60 Betano | 27.8% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Sweden | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | -16.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 4.75 BetVictor | 21.1% | +13.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | -21.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | +17.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -16.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +15.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1.65 Betfair | 60.6% | -16.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 56.1% | 1.78 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +16.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sweden favoured against Bosnia & Herzegovina
Our model makes Bosnia & Herzegovina 26% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Sweden at 44%. The goal projection is 0.91 for Bosnia & Herzegovina against 1.28 for Sweden — a clear edge to Sweden on expected output. A combined 2.19 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 14%
- 0-0 12%
- 1-0 9%
- 0-2 9%
This season
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 2-2-0 | W-D-L | 3-1-0 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game | 0.75 |
| 25% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 50% | BTTS | 75% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1-1-0 | Home record | 2-0-0 |
| 1-1-0 | Away record | 1-1-0 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bosnia & Herzegovina · Sweden
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.3 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 0.75 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 44 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 46 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | Metric | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 0.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.91 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 5.40 (better) |
| 9.20 | Total shots | 11.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.60 | Corners | 4.20 (better) |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 49.0 (better) |
| 407 | Passes | 423 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.40 | Fouls | 9.80 (better) |
| 0.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bosnia & Herzegovina wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Sweden wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden1–12026-10-02