Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5LDWLL18th2–0Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5LWLWL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Karlsruher SC
4
Shots
15
3
Shots on target
4
1
Corners
6
7
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
0
1
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
1
332
Passes
591
36%
Possession %
64%
0.77
xG
0.91
39%
23%
38%
1 · Borussia MönchengladbachXKarlsruher SC · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
48%
Both score
70%
Model pick
Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.77
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Borussia Mönchengladbach
39.2%
2.55
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-26.6
Match result
Draw
22.9%
4.37
5.00 Dafabet
20.0%
+2.9
Match result
Karlsruher SC
37.9%
2.64
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+25.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.6%
1.14
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.4%
8.09
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
69.3%
1.44
1.45 Betano
69.0%
+0.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
30.7%
3.26
3.00 Betfair
33.3%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
48.0%
2.08
2.00 Betano
50.0%
-2.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.0%
1.92
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.8%
1.43
1.70 William Hill
58.8%
+11.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.2%
3.31
2.50 Betfair
40.0%
-9.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Karlsruher SC: too close to call
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 23% and Karlsruher SC at 38%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.77 for Karlsruher SC — almost nothing to Borussia Mönchengladbach on expected output. A combined 3.58 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
3-1 5%
This season
Season records for Borussia Mönchengladbach and Karlsruher SC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Metric
Karlsruher SC
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.63 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
5.67 (better)
Shots on target
5.00
15.33 (better)
Total shots
14.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
5.25 (better)
49.0 (better)
Possession %
46.0
416 (better)
Passes
397
—
Tackles
—
14.00 (better)
Fouls
14.75
1.33 (better)
Offsides
2.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.00
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Borussia Mönchengladbach v 
Karlsruher SC