Bolton v 
Stoke City
Match statistics
| Bolton | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 547 | Passes | 269 |
| 68% | Possession % | 32% |
| 3.00 | xG | 0.71 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Bolton 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.59 – 1.19
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bolton 0
Why this price?
Back Bolton 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.02 with Bet365 — Bolton to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.82. The offered 2.02 implies only 50%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bolton 1.59, Stoke City 1.19.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | +2.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | +2.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.11 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +0.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | 1.40 Betfair | 71.4% | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Match result | Bolton | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.80 Betano | 35.7% | +10.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.3% | 3.81 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -2.3 |
| Match result | Stoke City | 28.0% | 3.57 | 2.60 Betfair | 38.5% | -10.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bolton favoured against Stoke City
Our model makes Bolton 46% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Stoke City at 28%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Bolton against 1.19 for Stoke City — a clear edge to Bolton on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Bolton | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 5-2-8 | W-D-L | 9-2-4 |
| 1.13 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.93 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 60% | BTTS | 67% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 2-0-5 | Home record | 4-1-2 |
| 3-2-3 | Away record | 5-1-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bolton · Stoke City
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 10.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.47 | xG | 0.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 9.5 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 50 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.96 | xG | 1.33 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Bolton | Metric | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 1.20 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 12.00 | Total shots | 13.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 | Corners | 5.80 (better) |
| 48.2 | Possession % | 48.4 (better) |
| 380 | Passes | 391 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 3.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bolton wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Stoke City wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Bolton v Stoke City1–22026-10-10
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |