Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5LWDDW9th0–0Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5DDWDW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Bohemians 1905
Sparta Praha
4
Shots
14
0
Shots on target
6
5
Corners
10
17
Fouls
19
1
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
214
Passes
463
35%
Possession %
65%
0.24
xG
3.18
24%
27%
49%
1 · Bohemians 1905XSparta Praha · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Sparta Praha 49%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.53
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Bohemians 1905
24.5%
4.09
4.40 Dafabet
22.7%
+1.7
Match result
Draw
26.9%
3.72
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
+1.2
Match result
Sparta Praha
48.7%
2.06
1.79 Dafabet
55.9%
-7.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.37
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-8.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.2%
3.67
4.40 BetVictor
22.7%
+4.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.7%
2.14
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-11.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.3%
1.88
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+8.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.2%
3.97
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-11.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.8%
1.34
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+8.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.5%
1.98
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.5%
2.02
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+4.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sparta Praha favoured against Bohemians 1905
Our model makes Bohemians 1905 24% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Sparta Praha at 49%. The goal projection is 1.01 for Bohemians 1905 against 1.53 for Sparta Praha — a substantial edge to Sparta Praha on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 11%
1-2 9%
0-2 9%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bohemians 1905
Metric
Sparta Praha
2.25 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
0.50 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
1.62 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.46
—
Big chances *
—
3.33
Shots on target
5.25 (better)
14.00
Total shots
17.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.67
Corners
4.25 (better)
47.3
Possession %
49.8 (better)
414 (better)
Passes
397
—
Tackles
—
11.33
Fouls
11.25 (better)
2.50
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.50
Yellow cards
3.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Bohemians 1905 v 
Sparta Praha