Bodo/Glimt v Viking

2nd3–21st

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Viking
12	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	3
12	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
388	Passes	579
40%	Possession %	60%
1.49	xG	2.07

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 73%
Over 3.5: 53%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Bodo/Glimt 49%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.15 – 1.66

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Bodo/Glimt -0.75

1.77BetVictor · fair 1.62 · qualifies at 1.67+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Bodo/Glimt -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.77 with BetVictor — Bodo/Glimt must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.62. The offered 1.77 implies only 56%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.15, Viking 1.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bodo/Glimt	48.8%	2.05	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-8.3
Match result	Draw	21.5%	4.65	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+0.4
Match result	Viking	29.7%	3.37	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+9.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.7%	1.11	1.10 Bet365	90.9%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.3%	9.74	10.00 Bet365	10.0%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.3%	1.36	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.7%	3.74	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	52.8%	1.89	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	47.2%	2.12	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.9%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.1%	3.56	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-3.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bodo/Glimt favoured against Viking

Our model makes Bodo/Glimt 49% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 21% and Viking at 30%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Bodo/Glimt against 1.66 for Viking — a clear edge to Bodo/Glimt on expected output. A combined 3.81 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 1-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Bodo/Glimt and Viking
Bodo/Glimt		Viking
26	Played	26
20-2-4	W-D-L	20-2-4
2.38	Pts / game	2.38
2.42	Goals for / game	2.65
0.88	Goals against / game	1.04
69%	Over 2.5	77%
42%	BTTS	69%
46%	Clean sheets	27%
12%	Failed to score	4%
11-0-2	Home record	13-0-0
9-2-2	Away record	7-2-4
W2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bodo/Glimt · Viking

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.7	Shots	16.5
5.3	Shots on target	6.3
5.8	Corners	5.3
0.83	Cards	2.17
10.8	Fouls	12.2
59	Possession %	44
2.26	xG	2.03
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	15.8
3.3	Shots on target	4.2
2.3	Corners	5.3
2.20	Cards	1.50
11.5	Fouls	10.0
41	Possession %	56
1.08	xG	1.39
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bodo/Glimt	Metric	Viking
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	2.40
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.48 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.10
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
17.00 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.75	Corners	5.75 (better)
60.0 (better)	Possession %	36.0
647 (better)	Passes	335
	Tackles
8.25 (better)	Fouls	13.25
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
0.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bodo/Glimt wins: 2
Draws: 0
Viking wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Bodo/Glimt v Viking3–22026-10-30
Viking v Bodo/Glimt5–02026-04-11
Viking v Bodo/Glimt2–42025-07-19

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5