Predicted Edge

Bodo/Glimt v Valerenga

Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 52nd0–1Valerenga won 3 of the last 58th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bodo/Glimt Valerenga
26Shots13
8Shots on target6
10Corners3
5Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
695Passes322
69%Possession %31%
2.60xG1.41
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
66%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt 81%
Likely score
3-1 8%
Expected goals
3.44 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBodo/Glimt80.8%1.241.15 Betano87.0%-6.1
Match resultDraw11.4%8.7910.00 Betfair10.0%+1.4
Match resultValerenga7.8%12.8215.00 BetVictor6.7%+1.1
Total goalsOver 1.594.3%1.061.05 Betano95.2%-1.0
Total goalsUnder 1.55.7%17.4513.00 Bet3657.7%-2.0
Total goalsOver 2.583.0%1.201.19 Betano84.0%-1.0
Total goalsUnder 2.517.0%5.895.50 Betfair18.2%-1.2
Total goalsOver 3.566.4%1.511.47 Betano68.0%-1.7
Total goalsUnder 3.533.6%2.972.88 Betfair34.7%-1.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.7%1.551.67 Betfair59.9%+4.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.3%2.832.30 William Hill43.5%-8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bodo/Glimt favoured against Valerenga

Our model makes Bodo/Glimt 81% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 11% and Valerenga at 8%. The goal projection is 3.44 for Bodo/Glimt against 1.10 for Valerenga — a commanding edge to Bodo/Glimt on expected output. A combined 4.54 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 83% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bodo/Glimt is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 19% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
3-1 8%
3-0 7%
2-1 7%
4-1 7%
2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga
Bodo/Glimt Valerenga
26Played26
20-2-4W-D-L9-5-12
2.38Pts / game1.23
2.42Goals for / game1.65
0.88Goals against / game1.81
69%Over 2.558%
42%BTTS54%
46%Clean sheets15%
12%Failed to score31%
11-0-2Home record6-2-5
9-2-2Away record3-3-7
W2StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bodo/Glimt · Valerenga

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.7Shots17.3
5.3Shots on target5.8
5.8Corners5.7
0.83Cards1.83
10.8Fouls10.8
59Possession %48
2.26xG1.79
6 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7Shots15.2
3.3Shots on target4.7
2.3Corners6.2
2.20Cards1.77
11.5Fouls8.7
41Possession %52
1.08xG1.70
6 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bodo/GlimtMetricValerenga
2.80 (better)Goals scored1.60
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.60
2.42 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.53
Big chances
7.25 (better)Shots on target4.00
20.50 (better)Total shots16.75
Touches in opp. box
6.25Corners8.75 (better)
63.8 (better)Possession %54.8
669 (better)Passes510
Tackles
10.75 (better)Fouls11.50
1.75 (better)Offsides2.25
Throw-ins
0.50 (better)Yellow cards1.75
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Bodo/Glimt wins
2
Draws
0
Valerenga wins
2
Goals / game
4.25
Over 2.5
75%
Both score
75%
Eliteserien table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Viking262024+4262Viking won 4 of the last 5
2Bodo/Glimt262024+4062Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3Rosenborg261448+2146Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4Lillestrom261439+445Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5Molde261358+2044Molde won 2 of the last 5
6Tromso261178+340Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7Brann2610313+333Brann won 1 of the last 5
8Valerenga269512-432Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9Sarpsborg 08 FF268711-1031Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10KFUM Oslo268711-1331KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11Ham-Kam268612-1530Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12Fredrikstad268612-1530Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13Sandefjord267712-828Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14Kristiansund BK267514-2126Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15Aalesund265912-1524Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16Start265417-3219Start won 1 of the last 5