Blackburn v 
Cardiff
Match statistics
| Blackburn | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 329 | Passes | 462 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 1.79 | xG | 1.06 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Cardiff 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.25 – 1.47
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Cardiff 0
Why this price?
Back Cardiff 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.10 with Bet365 — Cardiff to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.90. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Blackburn 1.25, Cardiff 1.47.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Blackburn | 31.6% | 3.16 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | +0.3 |
| Match result | Cardiff | 41.4% | 2.42 | 2.70 Bet365 | 37.0% | +4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.7% | 4.22 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -9.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.37 Betano | 42.2% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +7.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.57 Betfair | 63.7% | -7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.55 Betano | 39.2% | +5.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cardiff favoured against Blackburn
Our model makes Blackburn 32% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and Cardiff at 41%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Blackburn against 1.47 for Cardiff — a slight edge to Cardiff on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Blackburn | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-3-6 | W-D-L | 4-6-5 |
| 1.40 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 1.47 | Goals for / game | 1.80 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 80% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 73% | BTTS | 73% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 5-0-3 | Home record | 4-4-0 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 0-2-5 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Blackburn · Cardiff
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.0 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.02 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.1 |
| 43 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.04 | xG | 2.21 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 19.0 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 7.1 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 57 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.86 | xG | 1.85 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Blackburn | Metric | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 | Shots on target | 6.60 (better) |
| 13.00 | Total shots | 19.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Corners | 6.80 |
| 56.8 | Possession % | 63.8 (better) |
| 474 | Passes | 521 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.40 (better) | Fouls | 10.40 |
| 2.60 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Blackburn wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Cardiff wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Blackburn v Cardiff2–12026-10-10
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |