BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5LWDWW4th1–0IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5DLDDD10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
BK Hacken
IFK Goteborg
19
Shots
16
6
Shots on target
1
6
Corners
5
13
Fouls
7
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
586
Passes
478
55%
Possession %
45%
1.53
xG
0.89
51%
24%
24%
1 · BK HackenXIFK Goteborg · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
59%
Model pick
BK Hacken 51%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
BK Hacken
51.4%
1.95
1.80 Betano
55.6%
-4.1
Match result
Draw
24.1%
4.14
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+0.9
Match result
IFK Goteborg
24.4%
4.09
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
+1.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.6%
1.24
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.4%
5.14
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.6%
1.74
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-9.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.4%
2.36
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+4.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.2%
2.84
2.22 Betano
45.0%
-9.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.8%
1.54
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+4.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.6%
1.71
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-6.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.4%
2.42
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+2.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
BK Hacken favoured against IFK Goteborg
Our model makes BK Hacken 51% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 24% and IFK Goteborg at 24%. The goal projection is 1.81 for BK Hacken against 1.19 for IFK Goteborg — a substantial edge to BK Hacken on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BK Hacken
Metric
IFK Goteborg
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
0.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
2.65 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.50
—
Big chances *
—
8.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.25
21.25 (better)
Total shots
12.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.25
Corners
5.50 (better)
52.0 (better)
Possession %
48.0
530 (better)
Passes
434
—
Tackles
—
10.25 (better)
Fouls
15.25
1.33 (better)
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
1.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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BK Hacken v 
IFK Goteborg