BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5LWDWW4th4–0Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5LLLLL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
BK Hacken
Degerfors IF
19
Shots
13
8
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
6
8
Fouls
11
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
564
Passes
469
54%
Possession %
46%
2.43
xG
1.12
56%
25%
19%
1 · BK HackenXDegerfors IF · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
50%
Model pick
BK Hacken 56%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.93
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
BK Hacken
55.9%
1.79
1.44 William Hill
69.4%
-13.5
Match result
Draw
24.7%
4.05
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+4.7
Match result
Degerfors IF
19.4%
5.16
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.33
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-9.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.9%
4.02
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+6.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.9%
2.00
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-13.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.1%
2.00
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
+10.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.9%
3.58
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-12.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.39
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+8.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.5%
1.98
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-5.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.5%
2.02
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+1.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
BK Hacken favoured against Degerfors IF
Our model makes BK Hacken 56% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 25% and Degerfors IF at 19%. The goal projection is 1.74 for BK Hacken against 0.93 for Degerfors IF — a substantial edge to BK Hacken on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BK Hacken
Metric
Degerfors IF
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
0.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
2.72 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.85
—
Big chances *
—
7.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
19.25 (better)
Total shots
13.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00
Corners
6.25 (better)
55.5 (better)
Possession %
48.5
565 (better)
Passes
464
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
12.75
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.25 (better)
Yellow cards
1.25
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
BK Hacken v 
Degerfors IF