Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5WWWWD1st1–0Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5LDLLD10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth Island
15
Shots
7
4
Shots on target
1
5
Corners
5
8
Fouls
17
1
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
0
601
Passes
203
74%
Possession %
26%
—
xG
—
54%
25%
21%
1 · Beijing GuoanXQingdao Youth Island · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Beijing Guoan 54%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.04
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Beijing Guoan
54.1%
1.85
1.44 Betano
69.4%
-15.4
Match result
Draw
24.6%
4.07
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+6.0
Match result
Qingdao Youth Island
21.4%
4.68
6.60 Dafabet
15.2%
+6.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.28
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-10.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.9%
4.56
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+5.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
53.8%
1.86
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-15.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
46.2%
2.16
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+11.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
31.5%
3.18
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-16.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
68.5%
1.46
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+11.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.6%
1.83
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-7.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.4%
2.20
2.27 Betano
44.1%
+1.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Beijing Guoan favoured against Qingdao Youth Island
Our model makes Beijing Guoan 54% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Qingdao Youth Island at 21%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Beijing Guoan against 1.04 for Qingdao Youth Island — a substantial edge to Beijing Guoan on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-0 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
0-0 7%
This season
Season records for Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Beijing Guoan
Metric
Qingdao Youth Island
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.60
Goals conceded
0.60
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.44
—
Big chances *
—
4.25 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
9.75
Total shots
12.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.00
Corners
3.80 (better)
50.0 (better)
Possession %
45.4
455 (better)
Passes
372
—
Tackles
—
14.25
Fouls
11.00 (better)
2.75
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
0.50 (better)
Red cards
0.67
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Beijing Guoan v 
Qingdao Youth Island