Predicted Edge

Bedford Town v Wingate & Finchley

Bedford Town won 2 of the last 52–2Wingate & Finchley won 2 of the last 5
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Bedford Town 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBedford Town37.9%2.641.62 Betano61.7%-23.8
Match resultDraw26.4%3.794.33 BetVictor23.1%+3.3
Match resultWingate & Finchley35.7%2.804.75 BetVictor21.1%+14.6
Total goalsOver 1.578.5%1.271.13 Betano88.5%-10.0
Total goalsUnder 1.521.5%4.656.00 BetVictor16.7%+4.8
Total goalsOver 2.554.3%1.841.44 Bet36569.4%-15.1
Total goalsUnder 2.545.7%2.192.75 BetVictor36.4%+9.3
Total goalsOver 3.532.0%3.132.05 BetVictor48.8%-16.8
Total goalsUnder 3.568.0%1.471.70 BetVictor58.8%+9.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.4%1.71———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.6%2.412.55 BetVictor39.2%+2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bedford Town v Wingate & Finchley: too close to call

Our model makes Bedford Town 38% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wingate & Finchley at 36%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Bedford Town against 1.40 for Wingate & Finchley — almost nothing to Bedford Town on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Bedford Town and Wingate & Finchley
Bedford Town Wingate & Finchley
5Played6
2-3-0W-D-L2-3-1
1.80Pts / game1.50
1.60Goals for / game1.33
1.00Goals against / game1.17
60%Over 2.550%
80%BTTS67%
20%Clean sheets33%
20%Failed to score17%
1-2-0Home record1-1-1
1-1-0Away record1-2-0
D2StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bedford Town · Wingate & Finchley

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.3Shots12.0
2.7Shots on target4.0
4.3Corners11.0
2.33Cards0.00
—Fouls—
44Possession %57
—xG—
3 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0Shots10.0
5.3Shots on target4.0
8.7Corners4.0
3.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
56Possession %43
—xG—
3 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bedford TownMetricWingate & Finchley
1.40Goals scored2.20 (better)
1.00 (better)Goals conceded1.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Bedford Town wins
1
Draws
1
Wingate & Finchley wins
0
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%