Bayern München won 3 of the last 5WDWWD1st6–11. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5WDWLW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Bayern München
1. FC Magdeburg
19
Shots
9
8
Shots on target
2
6
Corners
0
7
Fouls
6
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
745
Passes
430
63%
Possession %
37%
4.02
xG
0.88
76%
13%
1 · Bayern MünchenX1. FC Magdeburg · 2
Over 1.5
96%
Over 2.5
86%
Over 3.5
72%
Both score
74%
Model pick
Bayern München 76%
Likely score
3-1 7%
Expected goals
3.46 – 1.42
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Bayern München
75.7%
1.32
1.06 Betano
94.3%
-18.6
Match result
Draw
12.9%
7.76
19.00 Dafabet
5.3%
+7.6
Match result
1. FC Magdeburg
11.4%
8.75
61.00 William Hill
1.6%
+9.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
95.7%
1.04
1.03 Betano
97.1%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
4.3%
23.32
19.00 Bet365
5.3%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
86.5%
1.16
1.12 Betano
89.3%
-2.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
13.5%
7.39
7.50 Betfair
13.3%
+0.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
71.7%
1.39
1.40 Betfair
71.4%
+0.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
28.3%
3.54
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
+1.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
73.6%
1.36
2.32 Betano
43.1%
+30.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.4%
3.78
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-20.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayern München favoured against 1. FC Magdeburg
Our model makes Bayern München 76% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 13% and 1. FC Magdeburg at 11%. The goal projection is 3.46 for Bayern München against 1.42 for 1. FC Magdeburg — a commanding edge to Bayern München on expected output. A combined 4.88 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 86% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bayern München is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 24% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
3-1 7%
2-1 6%
4-1 6%
3-2 5%
3-0 5%
This season
Season records for Bayern München and 1. FC Magdeburg
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bayern München
Metric
1. FC Magdeburg
4.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
3.68 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.99
—
Big chances *
—
11.20 (better)
Shots on target
6.60
27.00 (better)
Total shots
16.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
10.60 (better)
Corners
5.00
67.4 (better)
Possession %
56.8
669 (better)
Passes
536
—
Tackles
—
9.80
Fouls
9.00 (better)
2.80
Offsides
2.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.20
Yellow cards
1.20
1.00
Red cards
0.50 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Bayern München v 
1. FC Magdeburg