Predicted Edge

Barton Town Old Boys v Chorley

Barton Town Old Boys won 2 of the last 41–4Chorley won 2 of the last 4
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Barton Town Old Boys 42%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBarton Town Old Boys41.7%2.407.00 BetVictor14.3%+27.4
Match resultDraw26.4%3.785.00 Bet36520.0%+6.4
Match resultChorley31.9%3.131.42 Betano70.4%-38.5
Total goalsOver 1.577.9%1.281.14 Betano87.7%-9.8
Total goalsUnder 1.522.1%4.535.40 BetVictor18.5%+3.6
Total goalsOver 2.553.5%1.871.50 Bet36566.7%-13.2
Total goalsUnder 2.546.5%2.152.55 BetVictor39.2%+7.3
Total goalsOver 3.531.2%3.202.20 BetVictor45.5%-14.2
Total goalsUnder 3.568.8%1.451.62 BetVictor61.7%+7.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes57.5%1.741.65 Betano60.6%-3.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No42.5%2.352.15 BetVictor46.5%-4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barton Town Old Boys favoured against Chorley

Our model makes Barton Town Old Boys 42% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Chorley at 32%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Barton Town Old Boys against 1.30 for Chorley — a slight edge to Barton Town Old Boys on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
1-2 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Barton Town Old Boys and Chorley
Barton Town Old Boys Chorley
4Played4
2-1-1W-D-L2-1-1
1.75Pts / game1.75
1.50Goals for / game1.50
1.25Goals against / game0.75
50%Over 2.525%
50%BTTS50%
50%Clean sheets25%
25%Failed to score25%
2-0-1Home record0-1-0
0-1-0Away record2-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barton Town Old Boys · Chorley

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.0
—Shots on target7.0
—Corners7.0
—Cards3.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %46
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots19.0
—Shots on target9.0
—Corners6.0
—Cards0.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %54
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barton Town Old BoysMetricChorley
1.60Goals scored1.60
1.60 (better)Goals conceded1.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Barton Town Old Boys wins
0
Draws
0
Chorley wins
1
Goals / game
5.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%