Barnet v York

2nd3–17th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barnet		York
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	4
17	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	1
5	Offsides	4
391	Passes	262
60%	Possession %	40%
1.58	xG	0.71

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Barnet 43%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.94 – 1.72

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Barnet	43.2%	2.32	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.0
Match result	York	34.2%	2.92	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.5%	1.13	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.5%	8.72	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.8%	1.41	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+6.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.2%	3.42	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-8.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.8%	2.01	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	+7.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.2%	1.99	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-11.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.8%	1.41	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.2%	3.43	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barnet favoured against York

Our model makes Barnet 43% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 23% and York at 34%. The goal projection is 1.94 for Barnet against 1.72 for York — a slight edge to Barnet on expected output. A combined 3.66 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Barnet and York
Barnet		York
13	Played	14
7-5-1	W-D-L	5-5-4
2.00	Pts / game	1.43
2.15	Goals for / game	1.71
1.38	Goals against / game	1.50
77%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	71%
0%	Clean sheets	21%
0%	Failed to score	7%
4-2-1	Home record	5-2-0
3-3-0	Away record	0-3-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barnet · York

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	12.4
4.5	Shots on target	3.4
7.0	Corners	4.1
2.00	Cards	2.00
11.7	Fouls	9.6
58	Possession %	58
1.88	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	14.9
3.7	Shots on target	4.1
3.8	Corners	5.0
2.33	Cards	2.29
11.5	Fouls	13.3
42	Possession %	42
1.45	xG	1.38
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barnet	Metric	York
2.25 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.50	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
2.55 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.80
	Big chances
5.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
15.25 (better)	Total shots	14.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	5.80 (better)
49.8	Possession %	61.2 (better)
303	Passes	544 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	11.20 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Barnet wins: 1
Draws: 0
York wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Barnet v York3–12026-10-27

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5