Barnet v Swindon Town

2nd1–313th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barnet		Swindon Town
22	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	5
14	Corners	0
7	Fouls	6
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
603	Passes	232
72%	Possession %	28%
3.42	xG	1.46

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Barnet 60%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.20 – 1.19

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Barnet -0.75

1.57Marathonbet · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Barnet -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.57 with Marathonbet — Barnet must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.57 implies only 64%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Barnet 2.20, Swindon Town 1.19.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.2%	2.92	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.9%	2.28	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.1%	1.78	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.3%	1.60	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.7%	2.65	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-4.3
Match result	Barnet	59.8%	1.67	1.51 Dafabet	66.2%	-6.4
Match result	Draw	20.9%	4.79	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-0.2
Match result	Swindon Town	19.3%	5.17	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.6%	1.17	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.4%	6.95	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.8%	1.52	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barnet favoured against Swindon Town

Our model makes Barnet 60% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 21% and Swindon Town at 19%. The goal projection is 2.20 for Barnet against 1.19 for Swindon Town — a commanding edge to Barnet on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Barnet and Swindon Town
Barnet		Swindon Town
13	Played	14
7-5-1	W-D-L	5-4-5
2.00	Pts / game	1.36
2.15	Goals for / game	1.07
1.38	Goals against / game	1.21
77%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	14%
0%	Failed to score	50%
4-2-1	Home record	4-2-1
3-3-0	Away record	1-2-4
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barnet · Swindon Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	12.4
4.5	Shots on target	3.6
7.0	Corners	4.6
2.00	Cards	1.14
11.7	Fouls	9.1
58	Possession %	48
1.88	xG	1.41
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	14.7
3.7	Shots on target	6.0
3.8	Corners	6.6
2.33	Cards	1.00
11.5	Fouls	8.0
42	Possession %	52
1.45	xG	1.78
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barnet	Metric	Swindon Town
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
0.67 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
3.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
14.33 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	5.60 (better)
51.3 (better)	Possession %	51.0
313	Passes	384 (better)
	Tackles
14.67	Fouls	11.60 (better)
2.67	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.67	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.33 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Barnet wins: 1
Draws: 0
Swindon Town wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Barnet v Swindon Town1–32026-10-20
Barnet v Swindon Town1–22026-02-17
Swindon Town v Barnet0–22025-08-19

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5