Barnet v Oldham

2nd1–118th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barnet		Oldham
10	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	4
11	Corners	7
8	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	3
318	Passes	362
47%	Possession %	53%
1.44	xG	2.51

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Barnet 55%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.03 – 1.23

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Oldham +0.25

3.10Bet365 · fair 2.77 · qualifies at 2.86+ · 1.40u

Why this price?

Back Oldham +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.10 with Bet365 — Oldham starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.77. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.40 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Barnet 2.03, Oldham 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Barnet	55.5%	1.80	1.75 Dafabet	57.1%	-1.7
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.48	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.7
Match result	Oldham	22.2%	4.50	4.60 Betfair	21.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.1%	1.19	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.9%	6.27	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-6.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.1%	1.58	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.9%	2.71	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-6.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.0%	2.44	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.0%	1.69	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.8%	1.62	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.2%	2.62	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barnet favoured against Oldham

Our model makes Barnet 55% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 22% and Oldham at 22%. The goal projection is 2.03 for Barnet against 1.23 for Oldham — a substantial edge to Barnet on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Barnet and Oldham
Barnet		Oldham
13	Played	14
7-5-1	W-D-L	4-3-7
2.00	Pts / game	1.07
2.15	Goals for / game	1.07
1.38	Goals against / game	1.36
77%	Over 2.5	43%
100%	BTTS	43%
0%	Clean sheets	29%
0%	Failed to score	36%
4-2-1	Home record	3-1-3
3-3-0	Away record	1-2-4
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barnet · Oldham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	14.0
4.5	Shots on target	3.1
7.0	Corners	4.1
2.00	Cards	1.57
11.7	Fouls	12.4
58	Possession %	46
1.88	xG	1.37
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	14.4
3.7	Shots on target	4.1
3.8	Corners	6.6
2.33	Cards	2.14
11.5	Fouls	11.9
42	Possession %	54
1.45	xG	1.52
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barnet	Metric	Oldham
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.50
0.67 (better)	Goals conceded	1.50
3.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.56
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
14.33 (better)	Total shots	12.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	5.00 (better)
51.3 (better)	Possession %	49.0
314	Passes	393 (better)
	Tackles
14.67	Fouls	12.75 (better)
2.67 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.67	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Barnet wins: 1
Draws: 2
Oldham wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Barnet v Oldham1–12026-10-24
Barnet v Oldham3–22026-01-24
Oldham v Barnet1–12025-09-27

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5