Barendrecht v Waalwijk

1–12–2 aet, 1–4 pens

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barendrecht		Waalwijk
17	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	7
10	Corners	7
14	Fouls	16
6	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	0
543	Passes	510
53%	Possession %	47%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Waalwijk 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 2.06

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Barendrecht	29.8%	3.36	8.00 BetVictor	12.5%	+17.3
Match result	Draw	22.1%	4.53	5.40 Dafabet	18.5%	+3.6
Match result	Waalwijk	48.2%	2.08	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-15.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.4%	1.13	1.14 Betano	87.7%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.6%	8.60	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.7%	1.42	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.3%	3.41	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.6%	2.02	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.4%	1.99	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-11.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.0%	1.43	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+12.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.0%	3.33	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-13.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Waalwijk favoured against Barendrecht

Our model makes Barendrecht 30% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and Waalwijk at 48%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Barendrecht against 2.06 for Waalwijk — a clear edge to Waalwijk on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Barendrecht and Waalwijk
Barendrecht		Waalwijk
2	Played	1
1-1-0	W-D-L	0-1-0
2.00	Pts / game	1.00
1.00	Goals for / game	1.00
0.50	Goals against / game	1.00
0%	Over 2.5	0%
50%	BTTS	100%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	0%
0-1-0	Home record	0-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	0-1-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barendrecht · Waalwijk

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	20.0
5.0	Shots on target	7.0
10.0	Corners	7.0
6.00	Cards	3.00
14.0	Fouls	16.0
53	Possession %	47
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.0	Shots	17.0
7.0	Shots on target	5.0
7.0	Corners	10.0
3.00	Cards	6.00
16.0	Fouls	14.0
47	Possession %	53
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barendrecht	Metric	Waalwijk
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)	1.49
	Big chances
	Shots on target	5.00
	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	6.40
	Possession %	47.6
	Passes	393
	Tackles
	Fouls	12.80
	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.60
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Barendrecht wins: 0
Draws: 1
Waalwijk wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Barendrecht v Waalwijk1–12026-10-27