Predicted Edge

Barcelona v Getafe

Barcelona won 4 of the last 51st3–0Getafe won 1 of the last 515th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Barcelona Getafe
23Shots4
8Shots on target1
9Corners2
9Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
1Offsides3
858Passes173
83%Possession %17%
1.98xG0.16
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Barcelona 73%
Likely score
2-0 13%
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.72

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Edge strength 4 of 5

Both teams to score — Yes

2.50Betfair · fair 2.29 · qualifies at 2.40+ · 1.53u
Why this price?

Back both teams to score at 2.50 with Betfair — each side scores at least once.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.29. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 9.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.53 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Barcelona 2.33, Getafe 0.72.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBarcelona73.0%1.371.14 Betano87.7%-14.7
Match resultDraw17.7%5.6617.00 Bet3655.9%+11.8
Match resultGetafe9.3%10.7350.00 Betano2.0%+7.3
Total goalsOver 1.581.3%1.231.09 Betano91.7%-10.5
Total goalsUnder 1.518.7%5.349.50 BetVictor10.5%+8.2
Total goalsOver 2.558.8%1.701.30 Betano76.9%-18.1
Total goalsUnder 2.541.2%2.433.80 Betfair26.3%+14.9
Total goalsOver 3.536.4%2.751.80 Bet36555.6%-19.2
Total goalsUnder 3.563.6%1.572.22 Betano45.0%+18.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes46.8%2.142.38 Betfair42.0%+4.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No53.2%1.881.73 Betfair57.8%-4.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barcelona favoured against Getafe

Our model makes Barcelona 73% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Getafe at 9%. The goal projection is 2.33 for Barcelona against 0.72 for Getafe — a commanding edge to Barcelona on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Barcelona is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-0 13%
1-0 11%
3-0 10%
2-1 9%
1-1 8%

This season

Season records for Barcelona and Getafe
Barcelona Getafe
12Played12
11-0-1W-D-L3-3-6
2.75Pts / game1.00
4.00Goals for / game0.67
1.08Goals against / game1.50
92%Over 2.533%
67%BTTS33%
33%Clean sheets17%
0%Failed to score50%
5-0-1Home record3-3-0
6-0-0Away record0-0-6
W2StreakL1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Barcelona · Getafe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.7Shots10.8
7.3Shots on target3.1
6.7Corners3.9
1.86Cards4.13
12.0Fouls15.4
70Possession %33
3.07xG0.69
7 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
6.9Shots16.5
3.4Shots on target5.4
2.6Corners6.3
3.06Cards2.17
11.4Fouls11.4
30Possession %67
1.19xG1.43
7 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
BarcelonaMetricGetafe
4.80 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.20Goals conceded0.80 (better)
4.22 (better)Expected goals (xG)0.67
Big chances
8.20 (better)Shots on target3.20
23.00 (better)Total shots12.80
Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)Corners3.40
71.6 (better)Possession %38.0
731 (better)Passes306
Tackles
9.60 (better)Fouls15.20
2.60Offsides1.40 (better)
Throw-ins
1.60 (better)Yellow cards4.00
0.00 (better)Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Barcelona wins
3
Draws
0
Getafe wins
0
Goals / game
2.67
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
0%
La Liga table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Barcelona121101+3533Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2Real Madrid121002+2130Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3Atletico Madrid12912+1328Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4Real Betis12822+526Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5Real Sociedad12714+122Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6Sevilla12534-218Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7Athletic Club11443+416Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8Villarreal12435+215Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9Deportivo La Coruna12363+115Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10Racing Santander12426-1314Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11Celta Vigo12273013Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12Alaves12345-213Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13Espanyol12336-112Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14Rayo Vallecano11335-612Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15Getafe12336-1012Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16Osasuna12336-1112Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17Levante12255-511Levante won 1 of the last 5
18Elche12246-610Elche won 1 of the last 5
19Valencia12237-129Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20Malaga12057-145Malaga won 0 of the last 5