Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha

13th0–04th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Baník Ostrava		Sparta Praha
12	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	3
12	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
324	Passes	428
48%	Possession %	52%
0.99	xG	1.64

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Sparta Praha 63%
Likely score: 0-2 10%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 2.07

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sparta Praha +0.25

1.49Marathonbet · fair 1.34 · qualifies at 1.38+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sparta Praha +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.49 with Marathonbet — Sparta Praha starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 82% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 74%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.34. The offered 1.49 implies only 67%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Baník Ostrava 0.95, Sparta Praha 2.07.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Baník Ostrava	15.9%	6.28	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	21.5%	4.64	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-2.8
Match result	Sparta Praha	62.5%	1.60	1.79 Dafabet	55.9%	+6.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.0%	1.24	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.0%	5.26	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.2%	1.72	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.8%	2.39	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.8%	2.80	2.55 Betano	39.2%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.2%	1.56	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	+2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sparta Praha favoured against Baník Ostrava

Our model makes Baník Ostrava 16% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Sparta Praha at 63%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Baník Ostrava against 2.07 for Sparta Praha — a commanding edge to Sparta Praha on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sparta Praha is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 10%; 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha
Baník Ostrava		Sparta Praha
13	Played	14
4-2-7	W-D-L	7-3-4
1.08	Pts / game	1.71
0.77	Goals for / game	1.86
1.77	Goals against / game	1.00
62%	Over 2.5	57%
31%	BTTS	43%
31%	Clean sheets	43%
46%	Failed to score	29%
2-1-3	Home record	5-0-1
2-1-4	Away record	2-3-3
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Baník Ostrava · Sparta Praha

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	18.8
4.0	Shots on target	6.2
6.0	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	2.67
12.5	Fouls	14.0
51	Possession %	56
0.98	xG	2.05
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	11.2
5.0	Shots on target	3.8
4.0	Corners	4.5
2.33	Cards	1.92
9.5	Fouls	11.7
49	Possession %	44
2.14	xG	1.07
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Baník Ostrava	Metric	Sparta Praha
1.20	Goals scored	3.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.55	Expected goals (xG)	1.60 (better)
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	6.67 (better)
12.67	Total shots	20.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	9.67 (better)
53.7	Possession %	60.7 (better)
421	Passes	465 (better)
	Tackles
12.67 (better)	Fouls	13.33
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.67
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Baník Ostrava wins: 0
Draws: 1
Sparta Praha wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha0–02026-10-18
Sparta Praha v Baník Ostrava5–22026-02-28
Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha0–32025-09-27

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5