Baník Ostrava v Plzen

13th0–48th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Baník Ostrava		Plzen
11	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	8
7	Corners	5
13	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
424	Passes	374
58%	Possession %	42%
0.48	xG	2.82

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Plzen 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.75

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Plzen +0.25

1.67Marathonbet · fair 1.49 · qualifies at 1.54+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Plzen +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.67 with Marathonbet — Plzen starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 73% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.49. The offered 1.67 implies only 60%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Baník Ostrava 1.12, Plzen 1.75.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Baník Ostrava	23.8%	4.21	4.10 Betano	24.4%	-0.6
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.06	3.95 Dafabet	25.3%	-0.7
Match result	Plzen	51.6%	1.94	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.7%	1.27	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.3%	4.70	4.80 Betfair	20.8%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.9%	1.82	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.1%	2.21	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.5%	3.08	2.62 Betano	38.2%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.5%	1.48	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.3%	1.77	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.7%	2.29	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	+2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plzen favoured against Baník Ostrava

Our model makes Baník Ostrava 24% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Plzen at 52%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Baník Ostrava against 1.75 for Plzen — a substantial edge to Plzen on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 9%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Baník Ostrava and Plzen
Baník Ostrava		Plzen
13	Played	14
4-2-7	W-D-L	5-5-4
1.08	Pts / game	1.43
0.77	Goals for / game	2.07
1.77	Goals against / game	1.57
62%	Over 2.5	71%
31%	BTTS	71%
31%	Clean sheets	29%
46%	Failed to score	7%
2-1-3	Home record	2-3-3
2-1-4	Away record	3-2-1
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Baník Ostrava · Plzen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	16.5
4.0	Shots on target	5.3
6.0	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	2.33
12.5	Fouls	9.3
51	Possession %	45
0.98	xG	2.06
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	17.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.2
4.0	Corners	8.0
2.33	Cards	2.50
9.5	Fouls	12.8
49	Possession %	56
2.14	xG	1.58
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Baník Ostrava	Metric	Plzen
0.75	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
0.75 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.86	Expected goals (xG)	1.55 (better)
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
10.50	Total shots	14.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.50 (better)	Corners	4.20
49.5 (better)	Possession %	44.6
381 (better)	Passes	360
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	11.20
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Baník Ostrava wins: 0
Draws: 0
Plzen wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Baník Ostrava v Plzen0–42026-11-01
Baník Ostrava v Plzen0–12026-04-25
Plzen v Baník Ostrava2–02025-10-26

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5