Predicted Edge

AVS v Moreirense

1–0Moreirense won 2 of the last 59th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AVS Moreirense
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
AVS 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAVS39.1%2.563.50 Bet36528.6%+10.5
Match resultDraw26.4%3.79———
Match resultMoreirense34.5%2.89———
Total goalsOver 1.578.5%1.271.36 Bet36573.5%+5.0
Total goalsUnder 1.521.5%4.663.00 Bet36533.3%-11.9
Total goalsOver 2.554.4%1.842.20 Bet36545.5%+8.9
Total goalsUnder 2.545.6%2.191.65 Bet36560.6%-15.0
Total goalsOver 3.532.1%3.124.10 BetVictor24.4%+7.7
Total goalsUnder 3.567.9%1.471.22 Bet36582.0%-14.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.5%1.711.91 Bet36552.4%+6.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.5%2.411.80 William Hill55.6%-14.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AVS v Moreirense: too close to call

Our model makes AVS 39% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 26% and Moreirense at 35%. The goal projection is 1.48 for AVS against 1.38 for Moreirense — a slight edge to AVS on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for AVS and Moreirense
AVS Moreirense
—Played11
—W-D-L4-2-5
—Pts / game1.27
—Goals for / game1.18
—Goals against / game1.64
—Over 2.564%
—BTTS55%
—Clean sheets9%
—Failed to score36%
—Home record2-1-2
—Away record2-1-3
—StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. AVS · Moreirense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.4
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners2.8
—Cards1.00
—Fouls11.2
—Possession %39
—xG0.82
1 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots17.0
—Shots on target4.2
—Corners4.6
—Cards2.00
—Fouls13.2
—Possession %61
—xG1.50
1 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AVSMetricMoreirense
1.40 (better)Goals scored1.00
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.80
Expected goals (xG)0.98
Big chances
3.50 (better)Shots on target2.60
10.00 (better)Total shots9.00
Touches in opp. box
3.00 (better)Corners2.20
45.5 (better)Possession %33.2
Passes300
Tackles
Fouls13.60
Offsides0.25
Throw-ins
3.50Yellow cards2.50 (better)
0.00 (better)Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
AVS wins
1
Draws
1
Moreirense wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%