Avispa Fukuoka v V-varen Nagasaki

20th1–116th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Avispa Fukuoka		V-varen Nagasaki
14	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	2
16	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
564	Passes	355
62%	Possession %	38%
0.73	xG	0.25

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: V-varen Nagasaki 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.39

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.5%	1.34	1.37 BetVictor	73.0%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.5%	3.91	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-5.2
Match result	Avispa Fukuoka	32.9%	3.04	2.38 Dafabet	42.0%	-9.1
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.65	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-2.0
Match result	V-varen Nagasaki	39.7%	2.52	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+13.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.04	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	1.76 BetVictor	56.8%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.0%	3.70	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+2.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.0%	1.37	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Avispa Fukuoka v V-varen Nagasaki: too close to call

Our model makes Avispa Fukuoka 33% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and V-varen Nagasaki at 40%. The goal projection is 1.24 for Avispa Fukuoka against 1.39 for V-varen Nagasaki — a slight edge to V-varen Nagasaki on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka		V-varen Nagasaki
14	Played	14
2-2-10	W-D-L	3-4-7
0.57	Pts / game	0.93
1.00	Goals for / game	1.21
1.79	Goals against / game	1.57
64%	Over 2.5	50%
57%	BTTS	57%
7%	Clean sheets	14%
36%	Failed to score	29%
2-2-4	Home record	3-2-2
0-0-6	Away record	0-2-5
D1	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Avispa Fukuoka · V-varen Nagasaki

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	12.0
2.8	Shots on target	2.8
3.3	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	1.83
13.7	Fouls	12.2
49	Possession %	44
0.78	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.3	Shots	14.5
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
3.5	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	0.67
12.5	Fouls	13.2
51	Possession %	56
1.05	xG	1.34
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Avispa Fukuoka	Metric	V-varen Nagasaki
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.99
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.00
11.25	Total shots	11.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75 (better)	Corners	3.50
46.5 (better)	Possession %	43.8
386	Passes	403 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	12.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Avispa Fukuoka wins: 1
Draws: 1
V-varen Nagasaki wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Avispa Fukuoka v V-varen Nagasaki1–12026-11-07
Avispa Fukuoka v V-varen Nagasaki1–02026-04-11
V-varen Nagasaki v Avispa Fukuoka1–02026-03-15

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5