Avellino v Padova

6th0–112th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Avellino		Padova
28	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	1
11	Corners	2
6	Fouls	14
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
598	Passes	275
69%	Possession %	31%
2.18	xG	0.86

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Avellino 44%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Avellino	43.8%	2.28	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-0.7
Match result	Draw	28.7%	3.48	3.25 Betano	30.8%	-2.1
Match result	Padova	27.5%	3.63	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.0%	1.45	1.39 Betano	71.9%	-2.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.0%	3.23	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.1%	2.38	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.9%	1.73	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.4%	4.67	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.6%	1.27	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.9%	2.09	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.1%	1.92	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Avellino favoured against Padova

Our model makes Avellino 44% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 29% and Padova at 28%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Avellino against 1.01 for Padova — a clear edge to Avellino on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Avellino and Padova
Avellino		Padova
11	Played	11
4-4-3	W-D-L	4-3-4
1.45	Pts / game	1.36
1.45	Goals for / game	1.09
1.00	Goals against / game	1.18
36%	Over 2.5	36%
64%	BTTS	55%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
9%	Failed to score	9%
3-1-2	Home record	2-2-2
1-3-1	Away record	2-1-2
D1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Avellino · Padova

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.7	Shots	9.8
4.7	Shots on target	2.5
5.2	Corners	4.0
1.67	Cards	2.00
9.5	Fouls	11.2
54	Possession %	46
1.53	xG	0.91
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	19.8
3.8	Shots on target	5.5
4.8	Corners	6.8
1.67	Cards	1.67
13.0	Fouls	10.0
46	Possession %	55
1.17	xG	1.79
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Avellino	Metric	Padova
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.02
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
10.40	Total shots	12.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
1.80	Corners	5.00 (better)
42.8	Possession %	44.6 (better)
372	Passes	383 (better)
	Tackles
11.60 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	3.60
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.50 (better)
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Avellino wins: 1
Draws: 1
Padova wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Avellino v Padova0–12026-10-24
Avellino v Padova1–02026-03-07
Padova v Avellino2–22025-09-30

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5