Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5DLLLL11th0–2Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Austria Vienna
Rapid Vienna
16
Shots
11
4
Shots on target
5
6
Corners
3
13
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
0
568
Passes
420
58%
Possession %
42%
1.16
xG
2.22
24%
23%
52%
1 · Austria ViennaXRapid Vienna · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Rapid Vienna 52%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.93
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.9%
1.61
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+4.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.1%
2.63
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-1.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.6%
2.52
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+4.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.4%
1.66
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.9%
1.62
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
+4.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.1%
2.62
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-2.7
Match result
Austria Vienna
24.4%
4.09
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+4.4
Match result
Draw
23.1%
4.32
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
+0.0
Match result
Rapid Vienna
52.4%
1.91
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-6.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.20
1.24 Betano
80.6%
+2.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.7%
5.99
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
-1.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rapid Vienna favoured against Austria Vienna
Our model makes Austria Vienna 24% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and Rapid Vienna at 52%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Austria Vienna against 1.93 for Rapid Vienna — a substantial edge to Rapid Vienna on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 10%
0-2 8%
0-1 7%
2-1 6%
This season
Season records for Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Austria Vienna
Metric
Rapid Vienna
2.20
Goals scored
3.20 (better)
2.00
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.62
Expected goals (xG)
2.47 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.75
Shots on target
5.60 (better)
12.50
Total shots
12.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
5.20
55.8
Possession %
59.2 (better)
435
Passes
606 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.00 (better)
Fouls
9.40
1.25 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Austria Vienna v 
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