Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5WLLLL8th0–4Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5WWLWL3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Austria Lustenau
Lask Linz
7
Shots
23
1
Shots on target
10
4
Corners
12
13
Fouls
6
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
5
329
Passes
482
40%
Possession %
60%
0.35
xG
3.39
21%
21%
58%
1 · Austria LustenauXLask Linz · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Lask Linz 58%
Likely score
1-2 10%
Expected goals
1.27 – 2.22
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 3.5
46.0%
2.18
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-1.2
Match result
Austria Lustenau
20.7%
4.83
8.50 Betfair
11.8%
+8.9
Match result
Draw
20.9%
4.79
5.60 Dafabet
17.9%
+3.0
Match result
Lask Linz
58.4%
1.71
1.38 Bet365
72.5%
-14.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.7%
1.15
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-1.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.3%
7.50
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
-0.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.6%
1.48
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
32.4%
3.09
3.10 BetVictor
32.3%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.0%
1.85
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.4%
1.55
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+5.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.6%
2.81
2.30 William Hill
43.5%
-7.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lask Linz favoured against Austria Lustenau
Our model makes Austria Lustenau 21% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Lask Linz at 58%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Austria Lustenau against 2.22 for Lask Linz — a commanding edge to Lask Linz on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Austria Lustenau
Metric
Lask Linz
2.40
Goals scored
2.40
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.12
Expected goals (xG)
1.51 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
4.33 (better)
12.50
Total shots
17.67 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50
Corners
6.00 (better)
42.5
Possession %
58.7 (better)
325
Passes
471 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.50
Fouls
9.00 (better)
1.50
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
1.67 (better)
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Austria Lustenau v 
Lask Linz