Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5WLLLL8th2–1Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5LLDLD10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK
18
Shots
8
3
Shots on target
4
5
Corners
4
8
Fouls
9
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
0
457
Passes
246
65%
Possession %
35%
1.53
xG
0.67
38%
24%
39%
1 · Austria LustenauXGrazer AK · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Grazer AK 39%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.72
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Austria Lustenau
37.8%
2.64
2.80 Bet365
35.7%
+2.1
Match result
Draw
23.5%
4.25
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-4.3
Match result
Grazer AK
38.6%
2.59
2.57 Betano
38.9%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.16
1.24 Betano
80.6%
+5.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.0%
7.15
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-9.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.4%
1.51
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+9.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.6%
2.98
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-14.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.6%
2.24
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
+9.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.4%
1.80
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-14.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.6%
1.48
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+5.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.4%
3.08
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-9.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK: too close to call
Our model makes Austria Lustenau 38% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Grazer AK at 39%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Austria Lustenau against 1.72 for Grazer AK — almost nothing to Grazer AK on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Austria Lustenau
Metric
Grazer AK
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
3.20
Goals conceded
2.40 (better)
0.87
Expected goals (xG)
1.47 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.67
Shots on target
4.00 (better)
9.67
Total shots
15.33 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33
Corners
5.00 (better)
40.7
Possession %
41.3 (better)
362 (better)
Passes
289
—
Tackles
—
13.33 (better)
Fouls
15.33
0.33 (better)
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67
Yellow cards
1.67
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Austria Lustenau v 
Grazer AK