Predicted Edge

Auriense v Deportivo La Coruna

Auriense won 1 of the last 30–3Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 59th
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Deportivo La Coruna 44%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.47

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAuriense28.4%3.52101.00 Betfair1.0%+27.4
Match resultDraw27.2%3.6746.00 Betfair2.2%+25.1
Match resultDeportivo La Coruna44.4%2.251.02 William Hill98.0%-53.7
Total goalsOver 1.573.6%1.36———
Total goalsUnder 1.526.4%3.79———
Total goalsOver 2.547.8%2.091.03 Bet36597.1%-49.3
Total goalsUnder 2.552.2%1.9215.00 Bet3656.7%+45.5
Total goalsOver 3.526.1%3.83———
Total goalsUnder 3.573.9%1.356.00 Betfair16.7%+57.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes52.5%1.91———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No47.5%2.101.44 William Hill69.4%-21.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Deportivo La Coruna favoured against Auriense

Our model makes Auriense 28% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 27% and Deportivo La Coruna at 44%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Auriense against 1.47 for Deportivo La Coruna — a clear edge to Deportivo La Coruna on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 10%
1-2 9%
0-0 8%
0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Auriense and Deportivo La Coruna
Auriense Deportivo La Coruna
3Played12
1-0-2W-D-L3-6-3
1.00Pts / game1.25
0.67Goals for / game1.25
1.33Goals against / game1.17
33%Over 2.533%
0%BTTS75%
33%Clean sheets8%
67%Failed to score25%
1-0-1Home record2-3-1
0-0-1Away record1-3-2
L2StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Auriense · Deportivo La Coruna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots13.8
—Shots on target4.8
—Corners6.5
—Cards2.08
—Fouls10.1
—Possession %51
—xG1.34
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots12.8
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners4.8
—Cards3.04
—Fouls13.3
—Possession %49
—xG1.01
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AurienseMetricDeportivo La Coruna
1.00Goals scored1.40 (better)
0.50 (better)Goals conceded2.00
Expected goals (xG)1.78
Big chances
Shots on target6.33
Total shots19.33
Touches in opp. box
Corners8.00
Possession %49.7
Passes436
Tackles
Fouls12.00
Offsides1.67
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.00
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Auriense wins
0
Draws
0
Deportivo La Coruna wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%