Atromitos v Volos NFC

12th3–014th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atromitos		Volos NFC
12	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	2
22	Fouls	23
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	2
5	Offsides	1
372	Passes	293
56%	Possession %	44%
2.41	xG	0.52

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Atromitos 55%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.04

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Atromitos -0.25

1.68Bet365 · fair 1.52 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Atromitos -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Atromitos must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Atromitos 1.81, Volos NFC 1.04.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Atromitos	55.0%	1.82	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+2.6
Match result	Draw	24.1%	4.15	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-3.3
Match result	Volos NFC	21.0%	4.77	4.25 Betano	23.5%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.3%	1.28	1.34 Betano	74.6%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.7%	4.60	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.2%	1.84	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+4.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.8%	2.19	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.9%	3.13	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.1%	1.47	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.6%	1.83	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.4%	2.20	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-4.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atromitos favoured against Volos NFC

Our model makes Atromitos 55% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Volos NFC at 21%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Atromitos against 1.04 for Volos NFC — a substantial edge to Atromitos on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 6%

This season

Season records for Atromitos and Volos NFC
Atromitos		Volos NFC
9	Played	10
1-3-5	W-D-L	0-3-7
0.67	Pts / game	0.30
1.00	Goals for / game	0.70
1.33	Goals against / game	1.90
56%	Over 2.5	50%
67%	BTTS	60%
22%	Clean sheets	10%
22%	Failed to score	40%
1-1-2	Home record	0-2-3
0-2-3	Away record	0-1-4
D1	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atromitos · Volos NFC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.8	Shots	6.8
2.3	Shots on target	2.5
3.3	Corners	2.3
2.25	Cards	4.00
16.5	Fouls	17.2
51	Possession %	38
0.97	xG	0.70
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	15.7
4.8	Shots on target	4.8
4.3	Corners	6.3
2.75	Cards	2.00
17.5	Fouls	16.7
49	Possession %	62
1.02	xG	2.03
4 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atromitos	Metric	Volos NFC
0.75	Goals scored	0.80 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
0.77 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.76
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.00
10.00 (better)	Total shots	8.20
	Touches in opp. box
3.33 (better)	Corners	2.60
54.3 (better)	Possession %	40.4
432 (better)	Passes	300
	Tackles
14.00 (better)	Fouls	15.60
3.00	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.33 (better)	Yellow cards	3.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.60

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Atromitos wins: 2
Draws: 0
Volos NFC wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 0%

Atromitos v Volos NFC3–02026-11-02
Volos NFC v Atromitos0–32026-01-19
Atromitos v Volos NFC0–12025-11-09

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5